FedNow, a CBDC Prototype and the Miner's Break-Even

Fifteen of the largest public Bitcoin miners could produce a coin for less than fifteen thousand dollars in the summer of 2023. That figure came from a Bernstein report, read on the Mining Disrupt News update on August 7, 2023, at the end of an episode about who will own the rails of digital money.

That was 1,176 days ago. Bitcoin traded at $29,048 that day. On October 26, 2026 it was $80,028.

The host began with FedNow, the Federal Reserve's instant payment service, which launched in late July with what the host called little to no fanfare. A Payments Journal article listed six ways FedNow would change payments, from real-time transfers to support for innovation. The host doubted that last one. "When was the last time the federal government did anything that spurred innovation?" the host asked, and pointed to Bitcoin and Lightning as the place new work was happening every day.

The second story was MIT's Digital Currency Initiative releasing source code for a central bank digital currency architecture. James Wester, head of cryptocurrency at Javelin Strategy and Research, said the work "shows just how far we still are from a real functioning central bank digital currency." The host heard that as polite language for real problems, like a car released without wheels.

Then came Apple. A new advertising campaign for Apple Pay, and an Apple Card savings account with Goldman Sachs that had passed ten billion dollars in deposits. Add Elon Musk, who bought Twitter, renamed it X, and talked about turning it into a financial platform. "What we're seeing happening in real time is an extremely strong push on multiple fronts for there to be a digital and digital only payment ecosystem," the host said.

The host's answer was Bitcoin: digital scarcity, property rights you hold yourself, decentralization, and energy. The host claimed, without a source, that more energy backs Bitcoin than backs the US Navy.

That brought the show back to miners. Bernstein found the sixteen largest public miners produced sixteen percent of mined Bitcoin, with seventy-two exahashes per second between them. The lead analyst warned that the coming halving would double the cost of production and push a few miners to break even, unless the price rose. The report also said more institutions could arrive if the Securities and Exchange Commission eased its stance.

Both happened. The SEC approved spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024, and the halving came that April. The price the miners were counting on did rise, from about twenty-nine thousand dollars that week to about eighty thousand now.

The full story is on Mining Disrupt at miningdisrupt dot com, and many more like it play around the clock on Bitcoin Radio.