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The $150 Billion Sum

The February 19, 2024 News Surge on spot ETF demand: the $150 billion adviser math, MicroStrategy, and posts calling every old Bitcoin model obsolete.

Oct 26, 20263 min read · 422 wordsRecorded Feb 19, 2024
Listen on Apple PodcastsThis story is an episode of the Bitcoin Radio podcast.

Eight trillion dollars, times seventy-seven percent, times two and a half percent. That was the sum at the top of the Mining Disrupt News Surge for Monday, February 19, 2024, and it came to roughly one hundred and fifty billion dollars.

On the day the episode was recorded, Bitcoin traded at $52,346. On October 26, 2026 it was $79,831.

The host opened with a clip of a commentator, not named on the show, forecasting that U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs would take in more than $150 billion by the end of 2025. The math: independent investment advisers manage about $8 trillion, surveys say about three quarters of them plan to buy the ETFs, and the average allocation is about 2.5 percent. That leaves out the wirehouses, the broker-dealers and the institutions.

Then he read a post from Stack Hodler that gave the episode its title. Every existing Bitcoin model, it said, was built on data that was now obsolete. It claimed registered investment advisers face a 90-plus-day wait before buying a new product, so trillions in capital were sitting on the sidelines. It argued MicroStrategy, up 63 percent in 3 months against 46 percent for Bitcoin, could join the S&P 500 and pull index money into Bitcoin, and that even Vanguard Bogleheads would end up holding Bitcoin through it.

A post from Bit Paine had simpler advice for anyone who bought between 2020 and 2024: do nothing. Keep your own keys, and stop trying to time the market.

A post from an account called Rip Van Winkle said most forecasts in the low hundreds of thousands assumed Bitcoin would keep crawling along the bottom of its channel, despite $500 million a day in ETF inflows. The midpoint of that channel, it said, sat in the $700,000 range. And Bloomberg's Eric Balchunas reported that BlackRock's spot Bitcoin ETF had taken in $5.2 billion that year, half the net flows across all of BlackRock's ETFs.

The host also followed up on Chinese miners moving to Ethiopia for cheap energy. In his words, "the long and short of this one is that China is getting into Bitcoin."

He closed on the price in front of him, about $52,000 a coin, and a reminder that the show is not financial advice: "if you want to participate in that reality and you see where things are going then you might want to get some Bitcoin."

The full story is on Mining Disrupt at miningdisrupt dot com, and many more like it play around the clock on Bitcoin Radio.

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